US winter energy expenditures are forecast to diverge sharply by fuel this season, with natural gas and propane households spending less while heating oil and electricity users pay more, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Lower natural gas and propane prices are expected to drive expenditure decreases for the roughly half of US households that heat with those fuels. The EIA forecasts energy expenditures will fall on average by 9 percent for homes heating with natural gas and by 3 percent for those heating with propane.

Homes using heating oil as their main heating fuel, about 3 percent of US households and mostly located in the Northeast, face the largest increase. The agency expects a 21 percent rise in heating oil spending compared with last winter, driven by higher global distillate prices. Heating oil prices are forecast to average 34 percent more this winter than last, partly offset by warmer forecast temperatures in that region.

The more than 40 percent of homes heating with electricity are expected to see bills rise about 4 percent on average.

The regional temperature forecast diverges from last winter. Although national average temperatures are expected to be similar to the prior winter, the outlook assumes warmer conditions in the Northeast following a relatively cold winter, and much colder conditions in the West following an unusually warm winter. Temperatures in the Midwest and South are forecast to be similar to last year.

The EIA publishes the winter fuels outlook as part of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, which it cites as the data source for the expenditure and price projections.