Crude oil prices and refinery margins increased through the third quarter of 2026 amid persistent conflict in the Middle East, according to an analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration using Bloomberg data.
The front-month Brent crude futures price began the quarter at $72 per barrel on July 1, the lowest level since February 26 and two days before the start of the war. The EIA said low prices at the start of the quarter reflected increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz in June following the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding.
Prices climbed after military strikes resumed on July 7. Brent passed $100 per barrel on July 23, then traded between $79 and $98 per barrel until September 8.
The EIA attributed daily price volatility in that period to market responses to public statements by US, Iranian and other regional leaders regarding military plans and the likelihood of a peace deal, to flows and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, and to other supply risks such as attacks on oil export infrastructure in Russia.
Crude futures passed $100 per barrel again on September 9 following an escalation of military action against energy infrastructure in the Middle East and Russia. The EIA cited US and Iranian attacks on crude oil tankers, a US blockade on Iranian oil exports and attacks on pumping stations along Saudi Arabian infrastructure among the drivers.
The analysis covers petroleum market conditions during the third quarter of 2026 and cites Bloomberg L.P. as the price data source.